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Rebuttal of reform's urban crimes ranking report

Nottinghamshire Police  City of Nottingham

This report is fatally flawed and we demand that it is withdrawn until its authors get their facts right. We also refute the allegation that Nottingham is the most dangerous city in the country.

The inaccuracies are so fundamental that they mean that Nottingham is not, as the report suggests, highest for overall crime and for murder, for example.

  • Population – Wrong

The report gives a population of 249, 584 for Nottingham, based on 2001 census data. In fact, the 2001 census shows a population of 266,998. However, much more up-to-date and accurate information places the population at 275,100 (the census 2004 mid-year population estimate).

  • Highest crime rate – Wrong

Nottingham does not have the highest crime rate. The population inaccuracy means that Nottingham’s crime rate is reduced to 104.8 per 1,000 population – below Leeds. Over the past five years, all crime has reduced by 21,404 offences (13% drop) across Nottinghamshire and by 10,864 offences (14.7% drop) in the City.

  • Highest murder rate – Wrong

The correct figure for the number of murders in Nottingham in 2005 is nine – not 13 as stated in the report.

  • Most dangerous city - Wrong

Nottingham is not the most dangerous city if the right population figures are used.

  • Worst for vehicle crime – Wrong

Nottingham drops from the first to the sixth place

  • Second worst for robbery – Wrong

People would be significantly more likely to be a victim of robbery in London than in Nottingham (offences per 1,000 population down from 6.4 to 5.8)

  • Third worst for burglary – Wrong

Nottingham’s rate should fall from 38.33 – 34.6, placing the city at fifth place.

  • Comparing Nottingham with other places - Wrong

The report is not comparing like with like. The statistics appear to show that Leicester is larger than Nottingham and that Derby is almost as big as Nottingham, when this is clearly not the case. In fact the area described as ‘Derby’ includes south Derbyshire – containing huge areas of rural countryside. Clearly, if you compare such an area with a tightly-drawn area of inner city Nottingham, then Nottingham will have worse crime rates.

  • Gun crime figures

This report places Nottingham fourth in the country for gun crime. If the figures for the population were accurate or the conurbation figures were used, this would place Nottingham even further down this league table. This debunks once and for all earlier claims that Nottingham is ‘Gun Crime Capital of the UK’. Gun crime in the city is at its lowest since 1999, with a reduction of 16.5% in Notts (62% in the City of Nottingham) in 2005.

  • Not comparing like with like

The statistics for Nottingham are based on the City Division of Nottinghamshire Police Force. In order for the statistics to be more accurately compared against conurbations such as Manchester, Liverpool and Leeds, figures for Greater Nottingham – with a population of 632,100 - should be used.

Leader of Nottingham City Council, Councillor Jon Collins, said:

“There are lies, damn lies and statistics. Once again, people are bandying around statistics without fully understanding them and the implications of getting them wrong. I demand that this report is withdrawn until they can get their facts right, before it does any further damage to Nottingham, its businesses, its universities and its reputation.

“The comparisons made in the report don’t stack up. Everyone knows Nottingham is the largest city in the East Midlands, yet this report says that Leicester is, which is a nonsense. If such basic information is wrong, then we need to question what else is wrong in the report.

“How can we possibly be the most dangerous city in the country when, for example, there are ten times as many murders in London, according to this report, than in Nottingham? The description as the UK’s most dangerous city does not describe the Nottingham that I or the vast majority of people who live and work here recognise. We are proud of our city and feel safe in it.”

Chief Supt Marcus Beale, commander for Nottingham city centre, said:

“It is important to put this latest survey into context because statistics do not tell the whole story. Nottingham’s population is significantly higher than this survey suggests and we are being compared against some areas with large swathes of rural countryside.

“The truth is people living and working in Nottingham do not spend their days worrying about how dangerous they think their city is.

“This is a fabulous city with a thriving economy. It is renowned for its shopping, its great nightlife and attracts thousands of university students every year. Every weekend we play host to around 100,000 people who choose to visit Nottingham for a night out. They have a great time and then go home safely.

“All towns and cities across the country have their problems with crime and we are no different. But look at what we are doing about it. The number of offences in Nottingham city has fallen by almost 10,000 since 2002. In the last three years burglary, robbery and vehicle crime have all seen substantial reductions.

“Likewise, gun crime continues to fall, dispelling the myth that Nottingham was ever the UK’s gun capital. We work closely with Nottingham City Council and other agencies and that partnership is reaping rewards. This is a great city to live and work in; but it’s also a safe city too.”

For more information call: Stephan Richeux on 07967 202540 at the City Council or Paul Coffey on 07967 719881 at Notts Police.